Ukraine: A $12-15 trillion war.

In the Middle East, while Donald Trump has gone completely off the rails on Truth Social, the war of nerves between Iran and the USA is playing out primarily in diplomatic venues, trying to find a fair nuclear non-proliferation agreement in order to reopen the Strait of Hormuz (which was open before the American intervention).

A few thousand kilometers to the north, the Ukrainian conflict continues—even if we’ve forgotten about it—with the deployment of men and drones, complete with death, destruction, and prisoners on both sides. Here, unlike with Iran, there is absolutely no talk of finding an agreement.

In this post, I’m not interested in providing a chronicle of the war tearing part of Ukraine apart. What I want to talk about are two elements that aren't being discussed: "Why did Russia invade Ukraine?" and "Why is Europe investing billions to support the Kyiv government?" In these parts, even if we don't realize it, the future of Europe for the coming decades is at stake. It is not a humanitarian issue, but an economic one.

At the beginning, I believed what the leaders claimed: that Russia aimed to destabilize Europe, invade it, and destroy all those Western values upon which our civilization is founded. Let’s remember that the Russian invasion was truly something well-orchestrated; it seemed they wanted to topple the Kyiv government in a few days and then move into Poland, and then Germany. We were all frightened and scandalized. If we remember correctly, the winds of a new Cold War—or even a Third World War—were quite intense. That was the phase where Russia dominated and the European Union didn't know whether to intervene or not, as Putin kept threatening the EU with reprisals should the union intervene.

Ultimately, the European (and American) intervention did happen, but it wasn't military; it was logistical. The EU and America (especially under Biden) invested—and are still investing—billions to empower and train the Ukrainian army with the goal of defeating the Russians, despite protests from oppositions across Europe who consider that investment useless and damaging to the local economy.

As time passed, moving from a blitzkrieg to a war of attrition, two things happened.

The first is that Putin, despite the blatant European intervention in the conflict, has never attacked Europe. Putin and the EU, at this moment, are like a separated couple living under the same roof. The one who attacked Europe was Ukraine itself, apparently by sabotaging Nord Stream, where gas was transported from Russia to Europe. Paradoxically, in this conflict, the one who has damaged Europe the most was Kyiv, not Moscow.

The second thing is that Europe is talking to the Kyiv government itself about reconstruction. It is bizarre, to say the least. Why should Europe take charge of Ukraine's reconstruction? We are talking about a sovereign, independent state that has nothing to do with NATO or the European Union. Furthermore, internal pressure from public opinion, especially in countries like Germany, regarding investments in Ukraine is very strong. Why alienate your own people to help another, losing popular support?

Then, while writing this post, I realized that this war interested not only Russia, but also Europe, much more than European political rhetoric suggests.

To try to understand what is happening, we must start with a single question: what is Ukraine?

A Brief Historical Summary.

As long as the Tsars were in power, what we now call Ukraine was always part of the Russian Empire. However, it was never a happy marriage. There was a lot of dust under the rug. When talking about Ukraine and Russia, that dust was gunpowder.

When the Russian Empire fell with the October Revolution of 1917, Ukraine seized the opportunity and immediately declared independence in January 1918. That independence lasted four years. By 1922, it was reabsorbed by the new state risen from the ashes of the Russian Empire: the Soviet Union.

This forced, one-sided arranged marriage lasted until 1991. When the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union fell like a house of cards in a hurricane, Ukraine could finally declare independence and walk alone, without the Russian breath on its neck.

Among all the territorial losses, that of Ukraine was the most painful for Russia. Officially, it’s said to be an ethnic issue, given that many Russians have always lived in Ukraine, and both countries practice the same religion and apparently share an invisible bond between Moscow and Kyiv. Beyond the ethnic, linguistic, and cultural issues, there was also another reason—perhaps the most important one.

Why the Invasion?

Everyone talks about the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine because Kyiv wanted to join the European Union and NATO. It was the common belief that Russia wanted to keep Ukraine under control out of pure jealousy or fear.

The rhetoric in newspapers and politics always recited the same nursery rhyme: if Ukraine managed to enter NATO, the Moscow government would find NATO missiles and military bases on its doorstep, with the "American enemy" too close for comfort. And in fact, it seemed that way! Every time Ukraine tried to flirt with Europe, Russia said, "don't even think about it."

Even now, the invasion—even of just part of Ukraine—was Moscow's almost immediate response to Kyiv’s yet another attempt to go to bed with Brussels. It almost seems like Russia is playing the part of the jealous and possessive ex.

In truth, that's not it at all. Delaying Ukraine’s move toward the West—toward Washington and Brussels—is just a very pleasant side effect. Russia has never been afraid of the European Union. The invasion is not an act of the heart, but an act of pure pragmatism. Think about it: if the threat were only NATO enlargement, the accession of Finland and Sweden should have triggered a similar reaction, which did not happen.

The real question to ask is: why invade those specific regions? I mean, Putin has been saying for years now, "let's sign a peace deal, as long as the regions we hold remain in Russian hands!" As if those regions were the most important thing in the world, without which Russia would not survive. Why is Putin so obsessed with those territories? And why is Europe doing everything possible to obtain the liberation of those territories? These are not mere territories; they are financial assets disguised as provinces.

Ukraine: A Hidden Gem.

Although we think of Ukraine as an ex-Soviet country—poor, austere, and closed in its traditions—what Ukraine actually is is something much more precious. I don’t mean to say it’s an economic superpower, but it certainly has a lot to offer.

Agriculture.

Ukraine possesses about one-third of the world's "Chernozem" (black earth), an incredibly fertile type of soil that requires very little fertilizer. This land allows Ukraine to be among the world's top exporters of sunflower oil, corn, barley, and wheat. Essentially, Ukraine is one of the primary entities responsible for the basic nutrition of the entire planet. Just to put it in perspective, Ukraine exports between 45 and 55 million tons of grain per year to 190 countries. Before 2022, Ukraine had reached peaks of 50-55 million tons exported. This was the pace that allowed it to be considered the "breadbasket of the world." Even in 2026, it is estimated that Ukraine could empty its silos for a total of nearly 50 million tons.

But let's go into even more detail:

• Sunflower Oil: Ukraine exports an average of 5.5 to 6.5 million tons per year, holding one-third of global exports and confirming its status as the absolute top exporter despite growing competition. Despite war disruptions, the country still covers about 33-40% of the entire world trade for this product. In some pre-conflict years, this share touched 50%. This sector alone generates about 5-7 billion dollars in annual revenue for the Ukrainian economy. The European Union imports about 80% of its sunflower oil needs from Ukraine. It is a staple ingredient not just for frying, but for the entire food industry (biscuits, sauces, preserves, baked goods).

• Corn: Ukraine represents about 10-13% of global corn exports, essential especially for the animal feed chain in Europe and Asia. We are talking about 25-28 million tons a year (Ukraine is one of the top 4 global exporters). In an average season, corn exports generate revenue for Ukraine fluctuating between 4 and 6 billion dollars.

• Wheat: It covers about 7-9% of the world wheat market. We are talking about 15-18 million tons per year. In terms of pure earnings, wheat generates between 3.5 and 5 billion dollars a year for Ukraine. Although the share seems lower than other products, its impact is critical because it is concentrated in nations with low internal production; it is fundamental for bread in Africa and the Middle East, where exports are vital for social stability as these are arid and desert lands.

• Barley: 3-5 million tons, generating annual earnings for Ukraine ranging between 700 million and a billion dollars. China and Saudi Arabia are the largest buyers. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is the world's top importer of barley to feed its flocks of sheep and camels. A significant portion of Ukrainian barley is high quality and used to produce malt. If you drink a beer in Europe or Asia, there is a very high probability that the malt comes from barley grown in Ukrainian black earth.

  
  

If Ukraine decided to stop exporting grain, there would be a massive food problem. Without these volumes, moreover, food prices worldwide would explode within a few weeks.

Mineral Resources and Critical Metals.

Ukraine holds about 5% of the world's critical mineral resources despite occupying only 0.4% of the Earth's surface. This enormous concentration makes Ukraine a relevant country not only for the European economy but for the entire global technological and food supply chain. Want to know the numbers? Great, let's do a brief overview!

The Ukrainian subsoil is one of the richest on the planet, with deposits valued collectively at over 15 trillion dollars.

• Titanium: It possesses the largest titanium reserves in Europe, a material essential for the steel and aerospace industries. Ukraine is one of the very few countries in the world to possess the entire supply chain: from raw mineral extraction (ilmenite) to finished metal production. Before the war, Ukraine provided about 20% of the world's titanium concentrate.

• Manganese: It has under its control one of the largest world reserves, about 20%. It is among the top three countries in the world alongside South Africa and Australia. What is manganese for? Well, about 90% of manganese is used in steel production. It serves to remove impurities and make steel harder and more resistant. There is no cheap or effective substitute. If we want skyscrapers a kilometer high, all glass and design, bridges, ships, or tanks, we need manganese.

• Iron Ore: Ukraine owns about 10-12% of the world's iron ore reserves, ranking fifth in the world for proven reserves (after giants like Australia, Brazil, Russia, and China). Before the conflict, the metallurgical sector generated over 10-15 billion dollars a year. Europe is the main buyer, as Italian, Polish, and German steel mills have historically depended on Ukrainian ore and iron slabs.

• Lithium: Ukraine possesses the largest lithium deposits in Europe (estimated at about 500,000 tons). Why is it crucial? If iron and coal were the heart of the 20th century, lithium is the blood of the new millennium. It is the irreplaceable component for lithium-ion batteries. Without it, the transition to electric cars and the storage of renewable energy (wind and solar) is simply impossible. Whoever controls lithium controls the energy autonomy of the 21st century.

• Cobalt: Not only that, Ukraine is strategic for cobalt too. What on earth is cobalt for? It is used in lithium-ion batteries (those for electric cars, to be clear) to prevent them from overheating and to prolong their life. It is also fundamental for superalloys in jet engines. Currently, the world depends almost totally on the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chinese refineries. Having reserves in Ukraine means, for Europe, breaking a very dangerous monopoly and slashing transport costs and supply times.

• Graphite: Kyiv is also famous for graphite deposits, fundamental for batteries but also in the nuclear industry (as a moderator) and in high-quality steel production. Ukraine has one of the oldest graphite mining traditions in the world. Ukrainian graphite is of very high quality, ideal for being transformed into spherical graphite—the kind needed for the batteries in our smartphones and cars.

• Zirconium: It is irreplaceable in the nuclear industry (for fuel rod cladding) because it doesn't absorb neutrons. Even if nuclear energy seems like an obsolete technology, zirconium is also used in advanced ceramics, medical prosthetics, and space engines.

• Neon: Before the conflict, Ukraine provided about 70-90% of the world's semiconductor-purity neon gas, indispensable for the lasers that manufacture microchips.

• Uranium: Finally, it is the top country in Europe for uranium reserves and the seventh world producer of nuclear energy.

• Natural Gas: It possesses the second-largest natural gas reserves in Europe (after Norway), concentrated mainly in the eastern regions and the Black Sea.

• Coal: The Donbass basin houses one of the largest coal reserves in the world.

With these premises, it is considered a "gold mine" both for today and for the entire ecological transition of tomorrow.

Moscow’s Business Plan.

After this whole long, boring list of data, do you still think this is a humanitarian and social war? This conflict has never had a humanitarian aspect. Russia doesn't care about the lives of Russians in Ukraine. For Russians in Ukraine, there has never truly been that segregation that Putin claimed when he announced the special mission back in February 2022. It was just a trivial pretext to implement a plan much more crucial for the whole of Russia and its future.

It is estimated that about 60% of Ukraine's critical mineral deposits are located in territories currently occupied or situated right near the front line. The most significant deposits of lithium and rare earths (fundamental for the global energy transition) are in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, areas under occupation or heavily affected. Furthermore, Russian control currently extends over basins containing billions of tons of iron ore and one of the world's largest manganese reserves.

Some analysts estimate that Russia controls raw material deposits (coal, metals, and gas) for a total value exceeding 12.4 trillion dollars. This is just the mining part.

Do you still think the war has anything to do with a few thousand segregated Russians? Notice this: at the beginning of the war, the Red Army was a few kilometers from Kyiv. They could have truly taken Zelenskyi's head, yet they didn't push through, retreating and controlling the occupied zones. It makes no sense to get nearly to the capital and then pull back if you want to conquer an entire nation. Russia invaded Ukraine because it didn't want to lose trillions of dollars that it could obtain at bargain prices until 2022, thanks to very favorable agreements with Kyiv.

If Ukraine managed to enter Europe, it would be a huge problem, given that Russian energy policy is still based on coal and gas. Losing those territories would mean trillions of dollars to spend that would weigh on the budget—assuming Europe was even willing to sell them after Putin started the conflict. Furthermore, with international sanctions, Russia wouldn't be in a position to buy anything from Europe. Ukraine must remain in Russian hands for Moscow's survival.

Brussels’ Business Plan.

On the other side, the European Union cannot afford to just watch. It is in the middle of an energy revolution and cannot afford for its main supplier of critical materials (like lithium) to fall into Russian hands. Losing those regions would be a massive blow to the entire European economy.

The tactic now is clear and crystal clear. Europe helps Ukraine "for as long as necessary." It’s the only thing to do. We invest now for military support, the war is won, and then we invest to rebuild the country. The real question: what price must Ukraine pay? Well, Europe has invested billions of dollars in this war. Most likely, once the conflict ends, Brussels will obtain control of the areas currently occupied by Russia. The excuse will be "for protection from other Russian attacks," but in truth, it will just be a way to mask the theft we will perpetrate in Ukraine when we take possession of those 12.4 trillion dollars in materials, plus all the contracts—bordering on theft—that we will make Kyiv swallow for all the other resources, especially agricultural ones. Kyiv has probably made a pact with a worse devil because it's more subtle, disguised as an angel. Ukraine, caught between two fires, is losing its sovereignty either way: either by violent annexation (Russia) or by economic "debt of gratitude" (EU).

I know we are all angry now because billions are being spent "as a non-repayable grant" that are missing for everything else in domestic policy. However, one must also understand the reason for such a choice. A politician thinks this way: if I have to spend even 200 billion to obtain 12.4 trillion dollars (60 times the value invested), I'd say it's a great investment. It's like going into the financial market, investing one euro, and earning 60. Wouldn't you do it?

The alternative would be not to spend those 200 billion today, leaving everything in Russian hands. But at that point, over the next thirty years, Europe would find itself paying tens of trillions to buy back those same resources. Moscow would sell lithium, iron, and grain at prices inflated both by monopoly and by political spite. Not spending 200 today would mean accepting an economic death sentence, paying a total bill that—between energy inflation and dependency—could exceed the intrinsic value of the deposits themselves by five or six times.

To recap, on one hand, we have an investment of 200 billion that would bring at least 12.4 trillion in resources (and much more through sales); on the other hand, we have the idea of "spending those 200 billion at home" (the idea of populist movements), letting Russia take those resources and forcing us to spend even 40 trillion for the same resources we could have had for free.

Final Reflections.

In this chess game, Ukraine is the board, not the player. It is the ground on which it is decided who will control the technological transition of the next fifty years. If Russia wins, Europe becomes a submissive customer to Moscow's prices. If Europe (and America) manage to maintain influence over those territories, they will have secured the survival of the Western industrial system for the next century.

Is it cynical? Terribly. But it is reality.

While in the Middle East they try to reopen a strait with treaties to prevent oil prices from sinking the stock markets, in Ukraine they fight to decide who will own the "oil of the future": lithium, titanium, and neon. The difference is only in the tool: diplomacy for the old world, drones and blood for the new one.

In the end, it’s not about values, democracy, or the protection of minorities. It’s about who will have the keys to the safe. Ukraine made the great mistake of being too rich at the moment the world is hungriest for resources.

Are we willing to spend 200 billion to gain 12 trillion? Our governments have already answered yes. The real question is how much value we give to the fact that, in this gigantic financial investment called war, the current "currency" is the lives of thousands of people who believed they were fighting for freedom while they were only defending the balance sheets of the future masters of the world.

Welcome to the modern economy. Welcome to the real world.

M.